Dangerous Maneuvers by Russian Military Satellite Near Finnish Satellite

An incident has emerged where a Russian military satellite performed dangerous maneuvers by coming extremely close to a commercial satellite of Western nations last month. Space security experts have warned that Russia may be rehearsing for a potential attack. Thomas Dinan, Under Secretary of State for the US Department of State, stated on the social media platform X that Russia's Cosmos 2612 military satellite deliberately approached a commercial satellite in a dangerous manner, exhibiting behaviour akin to the operation of weapons in space.

The satellite approached by the Russian craft is known as X36 and is operated by the Finnish company ICEYE. This satellite provides radar imagery to the governments and militaries of Western countries, including Ukraine. According to space experts, this is one of the closest approaches by a Russian military satellite to a commercial satellite to date. Greg Gillingham, a senior space analyst at the American company Integrity ISR, told Reuters that the incident appears to be a rehearsal for an attack. He further added that this is Russia's most aggressive stance to date in terms of intimidating other countries' satellites.

Gillingham, a former US Air Force intelligence officer, stated that Cosmos 2612 is likely testing kinetic attack capabilities, as such proximity is not required for intelligence gathering or electronic interference. In early October, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself hundreds of kilometres behind X36, and within a few days, it rapidly reduced the distance, reaching less than one kilometre by mid-October. Some analysts believe this distance was a few hundred metres or even less. Subsequently, the Russian satellite moved 400 kilometres away. Now, two other Russian satellites are moving towards the orbital path of ICEYE's other satellite, X37.

N. Stevens, head of US operations for ICEYE, stated that X36 will remain operational and their series of radar-imaging satellites are capable of withstanding any disruption. The Russian Ministry of Defence has not reacted to this, but Moscow has previously warned that Western commercial satellites aiding Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliatory action. Major General Michael Traut, Germany's Space Commander, stated that such close approaches could be used for surveillance or interference. He warned that all consequences, from temporary disruption to permanent disabling of the satellite, must be considered. However, he also noted that orbital data alone does not prove that Russia is preparing for an attack.

According to Slingshot Aerospace, Cosmos 2612 is officially classified as a servicing inspection satellite. Russia launched six military satellites in April. In May, Russia positioned four of these satellites near X36, forcing ICEYE to move its satellite. According to the public space-object catalogue, both X36 and X37 are US-registered.

ICEYE is a Finland-based private company known for the construction and operation of radar imaging satellites. The company provides high-resolution radar data for Earth observation, which is used by governments of various countries and private organisations for security and surveillance.