Tribal voters to become 'kingmakers' in 2027 assembly elections

There is a well-known saying in Gujarat's politics that the road to power in Gandhinagar passes through the eastern belt from Ambaji to Umargam. According to a Sandesh report, while time remains for the 2027 Gujarat assembly elections, the BJP, Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have already entered the field to capture the tribal voter base. Comprising roughly 14.75% to 14.8% of the state's total population, which is about 89.17 lakh people, the tribal community could prove to be the 'kingmaker' in the upcoming elections.

Out of the total 182 assembly seats in the state, 27 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST). According to political analysts, this influence is not limited to just 27 seats, because there are about 19 other general seats in the state where tribal voters determine victory and defeat. Thus, the tribal community has a direct dominance over approximately 46 seats spread across 14 districts from Ambaji to Umargam. Additionally, out of the 26 Lok Sabha seats in the state, 4 seats namely Dahod, Chhota Udepur, Bardoli and Valsad are reserved for tribals. The voter turnout in these areas remains much higher than the state average, ranging from 75% to 80%, especially in Dediapada, Nizar, Dang and Kaprada, so that each of their votes has the capacity to change the equation of power.

According to data from the Tribal Development Department of the Government of Gujarat, the 89.17 lakh tribal population includes various sub-castes. Among them, the Bhil community has the highest population at 47.89%, followed by Halpati (7.21%), Rathwa (7.20%), Dhodia (7.13%) and Nayakda (5.16%) communities. The literacy rate of this community is 62.5%. Now, with the increasing number of young voters, voting is taking place based on local issues and development rather than traditional political loyalties.

Traditionally, the tribal belt was considered a stronghold of the Congress. In the 2017 assembly elections, out of 27 ST seats, Congress won 15 and BJP won 9 seats. However, the beginning of change was marked by BJP's victory in the 2020-21 by-elections in Dang, Kaprada and Morva Hadaf. In 2022, BJP performed best by winning 23 out of 27 seats. Due to the central government's decision to cancel the Par-Tapi-Narmada River Link Project, a wave in favor of BJP was seen in south Gujarat, where BJP won all seats except Vansda. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections too, BJP achieved a grand victory on all 4 ST seats. On the other hand, AAP's Chaitar Vasava proved his dominance by securing leads in Dediapada and Jhagadia seats under Bharuch in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP has pulled up its socks to maintain the historic victory of 2022 in 2027. On November 15, on the birth anniversary of Lord Birsa Munda (Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas), the BJP and the state government organized programs on 54 seats of tribal districts. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, Deputy Chief Minister Harsh Sanghavi and cabinet members inaugurated and laid foundation stones for development works worth over ₹2,300 crore in districts including Chhota Udepur and Valsad. The government has reconstituted the 'Gujarat Tribal Advisory Council', with the Chief Minister himself becoming the chairman. Apart from this, AAP is also adopting an aggressive strategy. After the 'Nyay Yatra' started from Ambaji by wives in support of Chaitar Vasava, an 'Adivasi Nyay Maha Sammelan' was held in Gandhinagar, where top leaders of AAP displayed their strength. In 2022, AAP secured 22.01% votes and made a big dent in Congress's traditional votes, while the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) came down to zero.