India's food supply at risk and prices rising due to climate change

Climate change is reducing crop production in India, disrupting food supply chains, and driving up food prices. According to a white paper prepared by 'Climate Trends', a research-based consultancy launched in New Delhi on Wednesday, this economic loss is not limited to farms but extends to retailers and consumers.

The report, titled 'From Risk to Resilience: Climate Change, Ecology and the Future of Indian Agriculture', states that India's food systems are facing the combined impact of rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, extreme weather events, and environmental degradation. These pressures are affecting agricultural production, food availability, and affordable prices, while also posing a risk to rural livelihoods.

According to the report, India's food systems are bearing the direct burden of rising temperatures, supply chain disruptions, disaster-related losses, price volatility, impact on trade, and increasing food insecurity. This paper gathers evidence of climate and environmental risks facing Indian agriculture and recommends pathways toward agro-environmental transformation.

Research cited in the report shows that a 1°C increase in temperature over the last five decades has led to an approximately 8% decrease in the average production of various crops across the country. For weather-sensitive crops like maize, this effect is more pronounced, with a decrease of up to 16% observed in production. If rainfall decreases by 20%, paddy production could decrease by 12%. The report also predicts that by 2050, under climate change conditions, India's wheat production could decrease by as much as 23%. Additionally, there is a possibility of a 10-17% decrease in fish catch by 2050.

Weather impacts have moved beyond farms to markets and retailers. In the summer of 2024, which was India's hottest year so far, mangoes that could typically last two days in the market spoiled in just one day. According to a report by Hindustan Times, a fruit vendor at Delhi's Azadpur Mandi suffered a loss of more than ₹1 lakh due to this. The report describes small retailers as the "weakest link" in the supply chain, as they are more vulnerable to heat-related losses.

Due to inadequate storage and transport facilities in India, 30-40% of fruits and vegetables and 5-6% of grains are lost. With cold-chain facilities available for only 4% of fresh produce, annual food loss is estimated to be $13 billion. Heat stress causes an annual loss of approximately 18 lakh tonnes of milk, which is about 2% of national production, resulting in an economic loss of approximately ₹2,661 crore.

Climate shocks are also contributing to food inflation. Citing a study by the Reserve Bank of India, the report states that between April 2014 and March 2024, a one-unit increase in temperature deviation led to an approximately 1.3 percentage point increase in vegetable inflation. In 2024, extreme heatwaves affected onion production, causing its prices to rise by 80%. In 2022, heat stress was also seen affecting wheat production, when production decreased from 109.59 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 106.83 million tonnes in 2021-22. Due to this decline, the government had to impose a ban on wheat exports to protect local supply. The report states that as extreme weather conditions disrupt production and supply chains, food inflation in India is becoming 'endemic'.

According to the report, economic costs could be significant. Estimates cited in the report suggest that by 2050, climate-related losses in just paddy, wheat, and maize could be between 0.28% and 1.02% of India's GDP. The paper also warns that current agricultural practices are undermining the environmental foundation of food production.