Primary school student population to decline by 20 per cent by 2036

The primary education sector in India may witness a significant transformation in the coming years. According to a new working paper released by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM), the population of children in the 5 to 9 age group attending primary schools is estimated to decrease by approximately 20 per cent between 2011 and 2036.

The research paper, titled 'How India is Transforming Education Capacity under the New Education Policy 2020', has been prepared by Soumyakanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at SBI and member of EAC-PM, and economist Shashidharan Sharma. The report states that this decline in admissions for primary-school-aged children is the first demographic evidence of India's falling total fertility rate.

According to a report by ABP News, these estimates have been prepared based on the 2011 Census data by the National Population Commission. Looking at the statistical details, the number of children aged 5 to 9 was 12.53 crore in 2011. It is estimated that by 2026, this number will decrease to 11.27 crore, representing a decline of nearly 10 per cent compared to 2011. Furthermore, by 2036, this figure is expected to drop further to 10.02 crore, indicating a decrease of approximately 20 per cent relative to 2011.

The report cites data from the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, according to which the country's fertility rate was 2.1 in 2019, which has dropped to 1.9 in 2024.

The report also highlights that a decline in the child population at the national level does not mean that the demand for schools is decreasing uniformly across the country. In fact, a major shift in enrolment is being observed from rural areas to urban areas. Between 2012-13 and 2021-22, total enrolment from Class 1 to 12 in rural schools decreased by approximately 78 lakh, falling from 18.71 crore to 17.93 crore.

During the same period, approximately 93 lakh new students joined schools in urban areas, causing enrolment there to increase to 7.64 crore. Consequently, the share of cities in total enrolment has risen from 26.4 per cent to 29.9 per cent.

Significant differences were also observed in state-wise figures. For example, in Uttar Pradesh, total enrolment has remained almost stable, but internally, rural enrolment decreased by 19.46 lakh, while urban enrolment increased by 17.6 lakh. In Bihar, both enrolment and the number of schools have increased, whereas in Tamil Nadu, a decrease in total enrolment was noted despite an increase in the number of schools.

This demographic shift is directly impacting the country's school network. According to UDISE+ data, there were a total of 15.51 lakh schools in the country in 2018-19, which decreased by 5.4 per cent to 14.67 lakh by 2025-26. The fastest decline was seen in primary schools providing education only from Class 1 to 5, which decreased by 12.6 per cent from 8.27 lakh to 7.22 lakh.

Conversely, the number of schools providing education up to Class 12 increased by 29.7 per cent, rising from 1.30 lakh to 1.69 lakh. The report clarifies that a decrease in the number of schools in the data does not directly mean schools are closing. In many cases, primary schools have been upgraded to include higher classes or have been merged.

To address the shortage of resources in small schools with fewer children, the New Education Policy 2020 has suggested 'School Complexes' and 'Cluster Models'. Under this model, nearby small schools and Anganwadis can mutually share teachers, laboratories, playgrounds, and leadership without closing any school building.

Researchers have advised that schools in remote or rural areas should not be closed based solely on national figures. Future planning should be based on local demand, the distance of the school for children, and the capacity of neighbouring schools.